Scottish A&E Excess Mortality Tracker

Total estimated excess deaths (since Jan 2021)

Weekly trend, 2021–present

Data: Public Health Scotland weekly A&E open data. Updated weekly. Shaded band shows the approximate uncertainty range; line shows the point estimate.

Advanced sensitivity controls

For users wishing to test how admission-rate assumptions change the estimate. Defaults are pre-set using the approximate relative proportion of actual hospital admissions for each waiting-time category in Scotland, 2023–2025.

4 to 8 hours, % admitted

8 to 12 hours, % admitted

Over 12 hours, % admitted

Method

Estimates apply Number Needed to Harm (NNH) coefficients from Jones et al. (2022) , Table 3, to weekly counts of patients waiting beyond each ED time threshold.

Wait band	NNH	Approx. 95% range
4–8h	191	144–287
8–12h	72	55–96
>12h	72	55–96

On the ranges: Jones et al. publish a 95% confidence interval for the SMR but not for NNH directly. The ranges above are approximated from the SMR and are not the original authors' own CI.

On banding: the 4–8h band applies the published 4–6h coefficient across the full window, as the underlying PHS data does not separate 6–8h waits. This may understate the true effect for 6–8h waiters, who carry a higher NNH-implied risk per Table 3 (NNH 82).

What this is

A modelled estimate built from national ED workload data and the current best estimate of NNH — not a count of confirmed deaths.

Adjust assumptions

The proportion of long-waiters who are admitted (vs. discharged) affects the estimate. Default values reflect actual Scottish admission proportions 2023–2025. Open Advanced sensitivity controls below the chart to adjust.